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Drop Rates, Gacha, and Probability Explained

Drop Rates, Gacha, and Probability Explained

116 View2019-11-09
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At first glance, this user appears to be exactly right. 7.5% of 50 would be 3.75 or at least 3. So why do you only get one? Well, that is because the 7.5% doesn't actually refer to the characters you were randomly awarded. So what does it mean?
If you have 13 characters, about 7.5% of them would be an SS. This still doesn't mean you will get 7.5% out of every attempt or probability would be a lot easier. Probability is the number of desired possibilities divided by the number of total possibilities. You have one desired possibility. Let's assume that there are also 12 other possibilities. If you divide one by 13, you get about 7.6% and can now advertise this as the drop rate.
Back to the question of why you only get 1 in 50 attempts. The drop rate is based on a single attempt with 13 possible outcomes and a single desired result no matter how many attempts you actually make. So is it better to make 50 attempts at once or 1 attempt 50 times? The reality is that it usually doesn't matter. What makes 50 attempts at once more advantageous is the time saved and other factors that developers are not required to publish, such as weighted results. By adding or removing available possibilities, games can alter the drop rate. Have you ever noticed how a lot of the increased drop rate attempts seem to have limits on what characters can be obtained? Removing one character increases the drop rate of all those remaining.
The trick is not the drop rate, but a misunderstanding that games exploit to their advantage. A drop rate is not the percentage of what you get being what you want, but the likelihood of what you want being selected from what is available.
Read this and other discussions as part of the "Was It a Lie?" series.
Comments
iwanttobefree
iwanttobefree
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ok cool, need this info to solve the mystery of arknights gacha.

2019-11-12

Valentine
Valentine Author
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There are 6 characters at 6* There are 45 characters from 3* - 5* 1 / 51 = 0.01960 or 2% (drop rate)

2019-11-12

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iwanttobefree
iwanttobefree
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yea but back then when i watching some gacha pull in there (here), i kinda felt their gacha is like a troll .  the person like got the same *6 over and over again jahahaha. as arknight being the most i wanted to play in future , this is not something i would be happy with u.u

2019-11-12

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